Space-Time Trend Detection and Dependence Modeling in Extreme Event Approaches by Functional Peaks-Over-Thresholds: Application to Precipitation in Burkina Faso

Sawadogo Béwentaoré, Diakarya Barro and Harvinder S. Sidhu

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, 2022, vol. 2022, 1-12

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating trends in extreme spatiotemporal processes using both information from marginal distributions and dependence structure. We combine two statistical approaches of an extreme value theory: the temporal and spatial nonstationarities are handled via a tail trend function in the marginal distributions. The spatial dependence structure is modeled by a latent spatial process using generalized ℓ-Pareto processes. This methodology for trend analysis of extreme events is applied to precipitation data from Burkina Faso. We show that a significant increasing trend for the 50 and 100 year return levels in some parts of the country. We also show that extreme precipitation is spatially correlated with distance for a radius of approximately 200 km.

Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jijmms:2608270

DOI: 10.1155/2022/2608270

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