Thermo-Environmental Modeling of Cholera Dynamics: Integrating Temperature-Dependent Transmission and Exergy Analysis for System Stability

Berhe N. Kahsay, Teklebrhan B. Abraha and Oluwole D. Makinde

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, 2026, vol. 2026, 1-15

Abstract: As global climate anomalies alter aquatic ecosystems, traditional epidemiological models frequently overlook the fundamental thermodynamic laws governing environmental pathogen reservoirs. This study bridges that critical gap by introducing a novel thermo-environmental modeling framework that couples the transmission dynamics of water-borne cholera with macroscopic ecosystem energetics. Utilizing a system of nonlinear differential equations embedded with temperature-dependent biological parameters, we examine the dual impact of thermal warming and metabolic entropy on epidemic intensity. Our numerical and sensitivity analyses reveal that ambient temperature acts as a critical control lever, where elevated thermal baselines concurrently compress the time-to-peak outbreak window and escalate maximum infection prevalence. Crucially, we identify striking temporal synchronization between peak human infection and maximum environmental exergy destruction E˙d within the aquatic reservoir. This energetic signature proves that explosive bacterial proliferation and host-induced pathogen shedding fundamentally destabilize the thermodynamic stability of the ecosystem. From a public health perspective, these findings establish environmental exergy profiles as a viable, nontraditional ecological diagnostic tool to forecast high-risk outbreak windows before clinical spikes occur. Ultimately, our structural sensitivity analysis demonstrates that while clinical scaling is essential for patient recovery, long-term epidemic containment rests heavily on targeted environmental sanitation and water-treatment infrastructure designed to shatter this thermo-biological feedback loop.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jijmms:5186449

DOI: 10.1155/ijmm/5186449

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