Fractional-Order Mathematical Modeling of Lassa Hemorrhagic Fever in Pregnant Women Under the Caputo Operator

Mashael M. AlBaidani, Rabab Alzahrani and Valerie M. Cheathon

Journal of Mathematics, 2026, vol. 2026, 1-18

Abstract: This study examines an etiological hypothesis that is closely related to the complexity of Lassa hemorrhagic fever (LHF), a disease that affects pregnant African women. The abovementioned disease that affects expecting mothers initially appeared in Africa and has negative consequences. This deadly disease kills more pregnant women than Ebola hemorrhagic fever, with a fatality rate of around 80 percent. A novel analysis is conducted on individuals who are pregnant using the time fractional LHF model that has been presented. The Caputo fractional derivative is used to extend the standard epidemic model to include memory-dependent effects that are frequently seen in biological systems. The Elzaki transform decomposition method (ETDM) and homotopy perturbation transform technique (HPTM) are used to derive the analytical solution of the model. Using the suggested techniques, we build four successive approximation schemes based on the Caputo fractional operator, and the fundamental reproducing number is found to be R0. The obtained results occur as an infinite series. The suggested approaches’ convergence and error analyses are also covered, along with an upper bound. A graphical assessment is added to illustrate the simplicity of the model under investigation. The anticipated model in the context of fractional order is taken into consideration to demonstrate and validate the effectiveness of the future techniques. The numbers display the population of pregnant women who are susceptible, infected, recovered, and die throughout time. In addition, the physical behaviors are shown in terms of figures for various fractional orders. The results in graphical form quantify the impacts of the projected as well as integrated characteristics and show that the disease can be significantly controlled or eradicated if the rate at which the outbreak spreads is reduced and the rate at which intervention is increased.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jjmath:4399110

DOI: 10.1155/jom/4399110

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