Prediction of Grain Yield in Henan Province Based on Grey BP Neural Network Model

Bingjun Li, Yifan Zhang, Shuhua Zhang, Wenyan Li and Filippo Cacace

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2021, vol. 2021, 1-13

Abstract: BP neural network (BPNN) is widely used due to its good generalization and robustness, but the model has the defect that it cannot automatically optimize the input variables. In response to this problem, this study uses the grey relational analysis method to rank the importance of input variables, obtains the key variables and the best BPNN model structure through multiple training and learning for the BPNN models, and proposes a variable optimization selection algorithm combining grey relational analysis and BP neural network. The predicted values from the metabolic GM (1, 1) model for key variables was used as input to the best BPNN model for prediction modeling, and a grey BP neural network model prediction model (GR-BPNN) was proposed. The long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), convolutional neural network (CNN), traditional BP neural network (BP), GM (1, N) model, and stepwise regression (SR) are also implemented as benchmark models to prove the superiority and applicability of the new model. Finally, the GR-BPNN forecasting model was applied to the grain yield forecast of the whole province and subregions for Henan Province. The forecasting results found that the growth rate of grain production in Henan Province slowed down and the center of gravity for grain production shifted northwards.

Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/ddns/2021/9919332.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/ddns/2021/9919332.xml (application/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnddns:9919332

DOI: 10.1155/2021/9919332

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().