Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission
Anthony A. E. Losio () and
Steady Mushayabasa ()
Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2018, vol. 2018, 1-12
Guinea worm disease is one of the neglected tropical diseases that is on the verge of elimination. Currently the disease is endemic in four countries, namely, Ethiopia, Mali, Chad, and South Sudan. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate factors and limited access to safe drinking water have a significant impact on transmission and control of Guinea worm disease. In this paper, we present a new mathematical model to understand the transmission dynamics of Guinea worm disease in South Sudan. The model incorporates seasonal variations, educational campaigns, and spatial heterogeneity. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the model have been carried out. Utilizing Guinea worm disease surveillance data of South Sudan (2007-2013) we estimate the model parameters. Meanwhile, we perform an optimal control study to evaluate the implications of vector control on long-term Guinea worm infection dynamics. Our results demonstrate that vector control could play a significant role on Guinea worm disease eradication.
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnljam:5084687
Access Statistics for this article
More articles in Journal of Applied Mathematics from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().