Modeling and Simulation of Vaccination and Awareness Strategies to Control HPV Transmission and Cervical Cancer Progression in Burkina Faso

Joël Lankoande, Wenddabo Olivier Sawadogo and Adama Kiemtoré

Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2026, vol. 2026, 1-23

Abstract: The persistent clinical burden of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and its progression to cervical malignancy constitutes a major public health challenge in low- and middle-income countries, with particular relevance to Burkina Faso. In this work, we develop a deterministic SEIR-type compartmental model that incorporates dual transmission routes—vertical (maternal–neonatal) and horizontal (including same-sex contacts)—to assess the population-level impact of current and prospective control strategies. Specifically, we investigate the introduction of prophylactic vaccination among individuals aged 9–15 years (rate νf) in conjunction with behavioral awareness interventions targeting adult populations (parameters ς and ςm). We prove the existence and positivity of model solutions, conduct a rigorous analysis of the global stability of both the disease-free and endemic equilibria, and derive an explicit expression for the effective reproduction number, Re. The sensitivity analyses highlight male-to-female transmission, female recovery, and the parameters νf, ς, and ςm as dominant determinants of Re and long-term disease dynamics. Numerical simulations calibrated with epidemiological and demographic data from Burkina Faso indicate that increasing νf to 90% coverage and attaining 50% effectiveness of awareness interventions lead to substantial reductions in HPV prevalence, cervical cancer incidence, and associated treatment demand. Collectively, these results demonstrate that an integrated strategy combining high vaccination coverage with sustained, population-wide awareness campaigns is the most effective and cost-efficient approach for HPV control in this setting. The findings underscore the need for policymakers to prioritize such combined interventions, underpinned by strong political commitment and active community participation, to achieve durable reductions in HPV burden and meaningful, long-term improvements in women's health.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnljam:5520434

DOI: 10.1155/jama/5520434

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