Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Exponential Smoothing Grey Model

Jianwei Mi, Libin Fan, Xuechao Duan and Yuanying Qiu

Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2018, vol. 2018, 1-11

Abstract:

In order to improve the prediction accuracy, this paper proposes a short-term power load forecasting method based on the improved exponential smoothing grey model. It firstly determines the main factor affecting the power load using the grey correlation analysis. It then conducts power load forecasting using the improved multivariable grey model. The improved prediction model firstly carries out the smoothing processing of the original power load data using the first exponential smoothing method. Secondly, the grey prediction model with an optimized background value is established using the smoothed sequence which agrees with the exponential trend. Finally, the inverse exponential smoothing method is employed to restore the predicted value. The first exponential smoothing model uses the 0.618 method to search for the optimal smooth coefficient. The prediction model can take the effects of the influencing factors on the power load into consideration. The simulated results show that the proposed prediction algorithm has a satisfactory prediction effect and meets the requirements of short-term power load forecasting. This research not only further improves the accuracy and reliability of short-term power load forecasting but also extends the application scope of the grey prediction model and shortens the search interval.

Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2018/3894723.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/MPE/2018/3894723.xml (text/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:3894723

DOI: 10.1155/2018/3894723

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Mathematical Problems in Engineering from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().