A Tookit to strengthen Government

Diego J. Pedregal (), Javier Pérez and Antonio Jesus Sanchez Fuentes ()
Additional contact information
Diego J. Pedregal: Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha

Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, 2014, vol. 211, issue 4, 117-146

Abstract: In this paper we develop a comprehensive short-term fiscal forecasting system, useful for real-time monitoring of government’s borrowing requirement in Spain, a country that has been at the center of the recent European sovereign debt crisis, not least because of sizeable failures to meet public deficit targets. The system is made of a suite of models, with different levels of disaggregation (bottom-up vs top-down; general government vs sub-sectors) suitable for the automatic processing of the large amount of monthly/quarterly fiscal data published nowadays by Spanish statistical authorities. Our tools are instrumental for ex-ante detection of risks to official projections, and thus can help in reducing the ex-post reputational costs of budgetary deviations. On the basis of our results, we discuss how official monitoring bodies could expand, on the one hand, their toolkit to evaluate regular adherence to targets (moving beyond a legalistic approach) and, on the other, their communication policies as regards sources of risks of (ex-ante) compliance with budgetary targets.

Keywords: Government accountability; transparency; Fiscal Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 C82 E62 E65 H6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ief.es/comun/Descarga.cshtml?ruta=~/do ... tas/hpe/211_Art4.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2014:v:211:i:4:p:117-146

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics from IEF Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Miguel Gómez de Antonio ().