Modeling an Average Monthly Temperature of Sokoto Metropolis Using Short Term Memory Models

Musa Y. ()

International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2014, vol. 4, issue 7, 382-397

Abstract: In this paper, the results of seasonal modeling of Sokoto monthly average temperature have been obtained using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average modeling approach. Based on this seasonal modeling analysis, we conclude that, the best seasonal model among the models that are adequate to describe the seasonal dynamics for Sokoto city temperature is SARIMA (3,0,1)(4,1,0) 12, SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1) 12 and SARIMA (4,0,2)(5,1,1) 12 models. These models are the only models that passed all the diagnostic tests and thus it can be used for forecasting at some future time.

Keywords: Seasonality; SARIMA; Identification; Estimation; and Diagnostics test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C2 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hur:ijarbs:v:4:y:2014:i:7:p:382-397

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