Debt Burden of the Financial System of Ukraine and European Union Member-States

Nataliya Trusova () and Andriy Sihaiov
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Nataliya Trusova: Tavria State Agrotechnological University, Melitopol, Ukraine
Andriy Sihaiov: National Technical University of Ukraine 'Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute', Kyiv, Ukraine

Oblik i finansi, 2018, issue 1, 124-131

Abstract: The tendency to increase the debt burden of Ukraine's financial system has been traced for several years. Domestic methodical recommendations that should suspend the buildup of the debt burden of Ukraine's financial system through effective forecasting, analysis and assessment of changes in the financial markets, have not provided active management of the market share of the budgetary debt at an acceptable level. The purpose of the article is to justify the scenarios in easing the pressure of the debt burden of the Ukraine's financial system, taking into account the elements of public debt management in the countries of the European Union. The peculiarities of the regulating the debt burden of the financial system with the allowable risks of revaluation pressure on the payments balance of the Ukraine and European Union member-states were considered. The methodology used in the research is based on the principles of the relationship between the indicators of economic growth and the indicators of the debt burden of the financial system within the framework of the 'Laffer debt curve' model. The 'Laffer debt curve' shows the dependence of GDP changes on the level of debt burden of the financial system for countries which form economic core of the Eurozone and for new EU members with another level of debt pressure for period 2012-2017. The financial instruments were analyzed, which allow the effective management of debt risks taking into account national characteristics. It was determined that the critical level of permissible pressure of the debt burden of the financial system for the Ukrainian economy is within the limit of 51.2 %. Based on the dynamics of payments concerning the Ukraine public debt, the scenarios of the probable increase the debt burden in the medium-term perspective were estimated. Effective actions have been recommended to borrow and distribute financial resources, risk-based management scenarios for guaranteed state obligations in terms of adjusting debt indicators to the marginal limits.

Keywords: debt burden of the financial system; GDP; debt burden indicators; currency risks; interest rates; public debt (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G32 G35 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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