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An International Spatial Analysis of Welfare Spending’s Influence on Measles

Mary Ellen J. Walker, Michael L. Szafron and June M. Anonson

Global Journal of Health Science, 2021, vol. 13, issue 10, 9

Abstract: BACKGROUND- National welfare policies have the potential to influence population health. Yet, no research has investigated the influence that welfare spending levels have on primary prevention interventions. METHODS- This study uses generalized linear mixed model Bayesian analysis to explore how welfare spending influences the relationship between measles counts and measles vaccination rates at a national level. Furthermore, models include random effects to account for the nested structure of countries within regions. A conditional autoregressive model was also developed to test for the influence of spatial relationships among the variables of interest. RESULTS- Analysis of the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) indicated that the non-spatial model (BIC=19743.090) was preferred over the spatial model (BIC = 24225.730). The final model found that both the first dose of measles vaccine (B = -0.835, 95% Cr. I. = -0.975, -0.699), public social protection (B = -0.936, 95% Cr. I. = -1.132, -0.744), and their interaction (B = -0.239, 95% Cr. I. -0.319, -0.156) had a negative influence on national measles counts. CONCLUSIONS- This finding indicates that welfare spending may enhance primary prevention interventions, like measles vaccination.

Date: 2021
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