Effects of Bilateral Real Exchange Rate on Sino-Nigeria Trade: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

Julio Bicudo and Nnanna Azu

International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2018, vol. 10, issue 7, 125

Abstract: This research is motivated to scrutinise the effects of real bilateral exchange rate fluctuation on China-Nigeria bilateral trade, taking into consideration volatility and third country¡¯s bilateral exchange rate effect to determine their consequences. Due to its robustness in time series analyses, an ARDL approach to co-integration was used to determine the long-and short-runs effects. Both export and import were considered separately. Outcome revealed that Nigeria¡¯s import from China responds negatively to real bilateral exchange rate increase just as it does to its volatility. Her export to China reacts positively on both front, most especially in the short-run. Japan was integrated as a third country in this research due to her competing presence in Nigerian market. Third country¡¯s real bilateral exchange rate play prominent but negative role in China-Nigeria trade, and is mostly effective in the long-run. With the absolute value of the co-efficient of real bilateral exchange rate greater than one, depreciating the Naira against the Renminbi will tend to ameliorate the negative balance of trade Nigeria has with China. Finally, democratic regime was found to be very essential in enhancing international business.

Date: 2018
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