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A Comparison Study of Copula Models for Europea Financial Index Returns

Paula V. Tofoli, Flavio A. Ziegelmann and Osvaldo Candido ()

International Journal of Economics and Finance, 2017, vol. 9, issue 10, 155-178

Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a new approach to modeling dependence between international financial returns over time, combining time-varying copulas and the Markov switching model. We apply these copula models and also those proposed by Patton (2006), Jondeau and Rockinger (2006) and Silva Filho, Ziegelmann, and Dueker (2012) to the return data of the FTSE-100, CAC-40 and DAX indexes. We are particularly interested in comparing these methodologies in terms of the resulting dynamics of dependence and the models¡¯ abilities to forecast possible capital losses. Because risks related to extreme events are important for risk management, we compare and select the models based on VaR forecasts. Interestingly, all the models identify a long period of high dependence between the returns beginning in 2007, when the subprime crisis was evolving. Surprisingly, the elliptical copulas perform best in forecasting the extreme quantiles of the portfolios returns.

Keywords: copula-GARCH; IFM method; Markov switching model; time-varying copulas; value at risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: R00 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:10:p:155-178