The Analysis and Predictions of Agricultural Drought Trend in Guangdong Province Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

Zhiqing Zheng, Jiusheng Fan, Huiping Liu and Dang Zeng

Journal of Agricultural Science, 2010, vol. 2, issue 4, 170

Abstract: This paper utilizes the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) to carry on the analysis and the predictions of theagriculture drought trend in Guangdong Province, trying to provide a reference for predictions and forecasting ofthe agricultural drought trend. After decomposing the anomaly signals of precipitation and undulating signals ofagriculture drought condition, four IMF components were obtained respectively. According to Guangdong’spractical situations, the four components can be interpreted to be four fluctuating cycles- light-disaster, mediumdisaster, heavy disaster, mega disaster. Their quasi-periods are- Light disaster for three years, medium disaster for5-7 years, heavy disaster for 13-15 years and 26-28 years for mega disaster. To predict the next few years ofdrought in Guangdong province by the change cycles of medium disaster, heavy disaster and mega disaster, theresults are as follows- medium disaster will happen between 2009 and 2011 and probably in 2010; heavy disasterwill happen between 2017 and 2019 and probably in 2018; mega disaster will happen between 2030 and 2032,and probably in 2031.

Date: 2010
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