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EMPLOYMENT AND REAL INCOME OF AGRICULTURE IN INDIA, CHINA AND OECD COUNTRIES: ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND EVOLUTION 1950-2000

Maria-Carmen Guisan (), Maria-Carmen, Pilar Exposito () and Pilar

The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, 2004, vol. III, issue 5, 7-17

Abstract: One of the most striking changes in socio-economic life of OECD countries during the 20th century has been the diminution of the share of agricultural income and employment in the economic activity. Many rural areas have experienced important migratory movements to larger villages and towns, in search of employment and income in non-agrarian activities elsewhere. Here we analyse the main factors which explain those changes in OECD countries during the 20th century and the challenges that similar movements could represent for India, China, and other developing countries, in the first decades of the 21st century. We present three econometric models to explain the evolution of agrarian employment in India and China in1950-2000, and analyse the perspectives of diminution of this variable in during the next decades. The main conclusion points to the great importance of fostering economic policies focused on human capital and industrial development in order to achieve higher levels of non-agrarian employment at national and regional level.

Date: 2004
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