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MEASUREMENT OF GROWTH TREND: AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF FOODGRAINS PRODUCTION IN WEST BENGAL

Kakali Majumdar and Partha Basu

The IUP Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2006, vol. III, issue 3, 44-55

Abstract: This paper analyzes the growth pattern of foodgrains production in West Bengal for the period of 1970-71 to 1999-2000. Goodness of fit has been tested for functional forms, viz., linear, exponential, log quadratic, parabolic, etc., both in the simple and kink (double) forms. The results show that in most of the districts, and the State as a whole, double kink linear form is the best fitted functional form. While the first trend break is always positive, the second one is generally negative. In the State, as a whole, both the positive and negative trend-breaks are significant, though there are district-wise variations. Performance during the 1990s is a matter of concern. Not only has there been a decline in the absolute growth in 1991-92, but since then, the relative growth rate has been declining over the decade in view of the linearity of the growth rate of foodgrains production in West Bengal.

Date: 2006
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