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Do Bankers Make Rational Economic Forecasts?

Muzafar Shah Habibullah

The IUP Journal of Bank Management, 2005, vol. IV, issue 4, 7-15

Abstract: In the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in the hypothesis of how expectations are formed by economic agents. Recently, many applied studies have tested the implications of the hypothesis of rational expectations on survey data. This paper provides empirical evidence on the rationality of economic forecasts made by bankers in a developing economy. The ‘unbiasedness’ and efficiency tests’ results cannot reject the rationality of economic forecasts made by bankers in Malaysia with respect to gross revenue and employment, but not capital expenditure.

Date: 2005
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