ARIMA Forecasting of Inflation in the Bangladesh Economy

Kanchan Datta

The IUP Journal of Bank Management, 2011, vol. X, issue 4, 7-15

Abstract: ARIMA method is an extrapolation method for forecasting, and like any other such methods, it requires only the historical time series data for the variable under forecasting. ARIMA models are a-theoretical, implying that their construction and use are not based on any underlying theoretical model of the behavior of a variable. However, it does not require the investigator to choose the initial values of any variable and values of various parameters a priori. In this paper, an attempt has been made for estimating an ARIMA model for forecasting the inflation in Bangladesh, which is one of the important macroeconomic variables for determining monetary and fiscal policies of the government of Bangladesh. The time plots of actual values and the forecasted values are more or less coincided; hence it may be claimed that ARIMA (4, 12, 2, 0) model fits the inflation data of Bangladesh satisfactorily.

Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:icf:icfjbm:v:10:y:2011:i:4:p:7-15

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