Forecasting Efficiency of Execution of a Foreign Economic Contract of an Industrial Aviation Enterprise

Piletska Samira T. ()
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Piletska Samira T.: National Aviation University

Business Inform, 2013, issue 4, 67_72

Abstract: The article states that the key tool of foreign economic activity is a foreign economic contract, on the basis of which methodical components are formed depending on the level of its organisation. Economic efficiency of contracts mostly depends on influence of risks, minimisation of which allows increase of efficiency of foreign economic activity of an industrial aviation enterprise. In order to determine influence of risks of a foreign economic contract on profitability of products it is offered to use a non-linear autoregressive model with external inputs (NARX). Method of optimisation of the quality functional is the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which results in obtaining more reliable results. In order to assess efficiency of performance of a foreign economic contract it is expedient to calculate the indicator of quality of conclusion of a contract. It is offered to create reserve funds of compensation of losses from impact of foreign economic risks. Efficiency of foreign economic activity of an enterprise should be assessed from the point of view of factually received profit against executed contracts and increase of circulating funds due to it.

Keywords: foreign economic activity; foreign economic contract; efficiency; profitability; forecasting; risk; neural networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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