Forecasting indicators that influence functioning of the pension system

Kashcheeva Valentina Yu. () and Shatravka Yelena A. ()
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Kashcheeva Valentina Yu.: National Aerospace University "Kharkiv Aviation Institute" named after M. Ye. Zhukovskiy
Shatravka Yelena A.: National Aerospace University "Kharkiv Aviation Institute" named after M. Ye. Zhukovskiy

Business Inform, 2013, issue 7, 203_208

Abstract: Forecasting demographic situation is an important factor that influences organisational and economic provision of implementation of the pension reform in Ukraine. In order to make an objective analysis, the authors selected the City of Kharkiv, with its one million population, which reflects demographic processes that are being developed in the territory of whole Ukraine and in developed industrial regions, and also in order to obtain the most representative statistical selection. The study envisages analysis of "a priori" information, processing statistical data, selection of the forecasting method, high quality examination of the obtained models and forecasting demographic indicators in the medium term period. The conducted study confirms tendencies of demographic ageing of the population of the region. The obtained results could be used for planning expenditures of the Pension Fund and expenditures of local budgets, connected with social protection of the population of the region, and allow assessment of the possibility of increase of pensions for individual categories of pensioners without additional load on the budget of the Pension Fund.

Keywords: provision of pensions; pension reform; Pension Fund of Ukraine; budget; expenditures; econometric modelling; demographic situation; category of pensioners (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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