Forecasting development of the network of highways with hard surface with consideration of competitive advantages

Shevchuk Yaroslav V. ()
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Shevchuk Yaroslav V.: Ternopil Institute of Social and Information Technologies

The Problems of Economy, 2013, issue 3, 41_50

Abstract: The article uses Lotka-Volterra equations to analyse competition between the highway and railway transportation networks and competitive ability of the network with the cement concrete and asphalt concrete road coverings. Modelling the process of development by the Lotka-Volterra equations lies in selection of parameters of the model in such a manner, so that model trajectories would be very similar to approximating trends by factual data. In accordance with the results of model forecasting of development of highway and railway networks the article makes a model forecasting of development of highway and railway networks by 2080. Within the framework of the Lotka-Volterra equations, the article conducts modelling of development of earth roads and roads with hard surface and studies competition between the roads with cement concrete and asphalt concrete road coverings (type 1), on the one hand, and road-mix and bituminous macadam roads (type 2). The article establishes that earth roads do not compete with the roads with hard surface, although this type of roads was viable in the post-war period due to its cheapness.

Keywords: transport system; highway network; railway network; freight turnover; modelling; model forecasting; transport models; Lotka-Volterra equations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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