Scenarios for Development of Scientific and Innovative Potential of Ukraine under Conditions of a New Industrial Revolution and Association with the EU

Matyushenko Igor Yu. ()
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Matyushenko Igor Yu.: V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University

The Problems of Economy, 2016, issue 4, 261_272

Abstract: The article presents the results of the scenario simulation of scientific and innovative development of Ukraine to determine the appropriate method of its management under conditions of a new industrial revolution and association with the EU. It is shown that the best scenario that in the long run provides a significant improvement in the results of scientific and technological development is a scenario of increasing the level of R&D expenditures to the EU target figure amounting to 4% of GDP. But this scenario is unlikely. It is found that the optimal level of expenditures can be considered as 2.5% of GDP, which can be achieved in the medium term; in this case raising the level of expenditures to 1.7-2% of GDP gives certain results but does not produce sufficient resources for a long-term development. It is proved that in order to achieve significant results in scientific and technological development, the increase in expenditures on R&D should be accompanied by forming clusters, increasing the level of protection of investors, providing development of high-tech industries and employment in this sphere, as well as facilitating the access to ICTs. It is found that a prerequisite for an effective scientific and technological development is stimulation of the population interest in obtaining high-quality professional education, including through the promotion by employers.

Keywords: scenario simulation; scientific and innovative development; indicators of scientific and technological activities; level of GDP per capita; simulation experiments in management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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