Trade balance and real exchange rate: new evidence from Mauritius-UK trade

Rakesh Bissoondeeal

Global Business and Economics Review, 2009, vol. 11, issue 2, 167-179

Abstract: Two main questions are addressed here: is there a long-run relationship between trade balance and real exchange rate for the bilateral trade between Mauritius and UK? Does a J-curve exist for this bilateral trade? Our findings suggest that the real exchange rate is cointegrated with the trade balance and we find evidence of a J-curve effect. We also find bidirectional causality between the trade balance and the real exchange rate in the long-run. The real exchange rate also causes the trade balance in the short-run. In an out-of-sample forecasting experiment, we also find that real exchange rate contains useful information that can explain future movements in the trade balance.

Keywords: trade balance; real exchange rates; cointegration; J-curve; Granger causality; forecasting; Mauritius; UK; United Kingdom. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:gbusec:v:11:y:2009:i:2:p:167-179

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