Business cycle and uncertainties: evaluating the behaviour of the automotive industry in relation to the COVID-19 period in Brazil

Gerlane Gonçalves De Andrade, Admir Antonio Betarelli Junior, Carlos Alberto Gonçalves Da Silva and Weslem Rodrigues Faria

International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 2021, vol. 21, issue 4, 273-294

Abstract: Drawing on autoregressive vector (VAR) model, this paper analyses supply and demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles in Brazil from January 2012 to February 2020. Then, it points out how the automotive activity in the country responds to shocks of political proposals or unexpected shocks. The results on the short-term forecast suggest that credit, income, price, and tax influence the business cycles of the industry and returns to a stationary trend over a period of five months. Therefore, the analysis suggests that the automotive activity has a capacity for quick recovery in face of an eventual adverse shock, such as COVID-19 outbreak. This convergence time can be shortened by credit and tax reduction policies, as well as the new automation and electrification technologies in the automotive industry.

Keywords: business cycle; COVID-19; automotive industry; VAR model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=119403 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijatma:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:273-294

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management from Inderscience Enterprises Ltd
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sarah Parker ().