Evaluating alternative fuels in USA: a proposed forecasting framework using AHP and scenarios

M.R. Nava and Tugrul U. Daim

International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, 2007, vol. 7, issue 4, 289-313

Abstract: This paper proposes a forecasting framework that integrates the analytic hierarchy process with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialisation of future motor fuel technologies. We analyse the reasons for the uncertainty of oil price and how it affects alternative fuel commercialisation. We propose a set of evaluation criteria including Economic, Cultural, Environmental, Sustainability and Development Time. Finally, we develop four different Scenarios to verify the robustness of each alternative.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process; AHP; scenario planning; fuel alternatives; alternative propulsion; forecasting; commercialisation; future motor fuels; automotive technology; automobile industry. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijatma:v:7:y:2007:i:4:p:289-313

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