Air traffic growth, energy, and the environment 2040: drivers, challenges, and opportunities for aviation

Niclas P. Randt, Christoph Jeßberger (), Kay Plötner and Axel Becker

International Journal of Aviation Management, 2015, vol. 2, issue 3/4, 144-166

Abstract: Although many forecasts predict a stable development of commercial aviation within the upcoming decade, its further development remains uncertain. Aviation stakeholders usually develop strategies on a short-term basis, while public institutions have set ambitious long-term goals for the industry. This paper shows how scenario planning can aid in handling uncertainty in long-term strategy development. Three decisive factors are explored: the increasing scarcity of resources, the change of global climate, and the growing demand for mobility. The paper exposes the results of a recent foresight project led by the authors. Three future scenarios are examined featuring top-level statements that address the global political and economic situation, and in-detail views on the aviation sector in 2040. The intentional difference between the three scenarios eventually enables the development of robust strategies for aviation stakeholders.

Keywords: air traffic growth; resource scarcity; global climate change; mobility demand; commercial aviation; scenario planning; strategy development; future uncertainty; future challenges; future scenarios; foresight project; aviation management; long-term goals; future air transport. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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