Scenario-based life-cycle cost assessment of future air transport concepts

Michael Schmidt, Kay Olaf Ploetner, Gerald Öttl, Askin T. Isikveren and Mirko Hornung

International Journal of Aviation Management, 2015, vol. 2, issue 3/4, 167-182

Abstract: The aviation industry stakeholders operate in a volatile environment. Because of the long life-cycles of aircraft, the consideration of future developments is vital for the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment of aircraft concepts during the conceptual design phase. Using current LCC models, a multiplicity of assumptions about the future development manipulates the results to a varying degree. Hence, a link between scenarios, as an established method for describing possible future developments, and LCC models is necessary to determine the scenario-driven LCC parameters. In order to establish this link, the relations between the key scenario factors and scenario-driven LCC parameters were mapped out and regression equations based on historical values describe the dependencies. The resulting model allows the evaluation of aircraft concepts for a variety of future scenarios and with identifying cost drivers for different future environments, it is now possible to provide more accurate predictions about the future cost of flying.

Keywords: future air transport; scenarios; lifecycle costing; LCC; lifecycle assessment; LCA; causal mapping; direct operating cost; net present value; NPV; aircraft concepts; aviation management; commercial aviation; scenario planning; strategy development; future uncertainty; future challenges; future scenarios; cost of flying. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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