 Forecast of air traffic's CO 2 and NO x emissions until 2030Martin Schaefer International Journal of Aviation Management, 2015, vol. 2, issue 3/4, 256-273 Abstract: This article presents both methodology and results of an emissions forecast for air traffic until the year 2030. Aircraft emissions include carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxides (NOx), which influence atmospheric chemistry and may contribute to global warming. The forecast is based on a simulation model, which predicts future air traffic and its emissions using flight schedules for a base year in combination with traffic growth assumptions and a fleet rollover simulation. Aircraft performance software is applied to estimate fuel consumption, CO2 and NOx emissions. Models from the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) are used to simulate today's fleet of aircraft, supplemented by additional models representing aircraft of the near future. Forecast results include the number of flights, passenger-kilometres, fuel consumption, CO2 and NOx emissions for air traffic from 2010 until 2030. Keywords: air traffic; aviation emissions; emissions forecasting; fuel consumption; carbon dioxide; CO2; carbon emissions; nitric oxides; NOx emissions; air pollution; aircraft emissions; global warming; simulation; modelling; future air traffic; flight schedules; air traffic growth; air fleet rollover; aircraft performance; fuel consumption; passenger kilometres. (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijavim:v:2:y:2015:i:3/4:p:256-273 Access Statistics for this article More articles in International Journal of Aviation Management from Inderscience Enterprises Ltd |
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