 Dynamics of Greece's unemployment rate: effect of the economic crisis and forecasting modelsChristos Katris International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, 2015, vol. 5, issue 2, 127-142 Abstract: This paper studies the effect of the economic crisis in the unemployment of Greece compared with the unemployment of EU17 (countries that have adopted the Euro as their official currency) through a quantitative approach. Specifically, the hysteresis of the unemployment rate was examined before and after the economic crisis. Moreover, the long-memory behaviour is determined before and after the crisis through the calculation of Hurst exponent with R/S method. The other major scope of this work is the development of forecasting models for the unemployment rate in Greece. Firstly, the classical ARIMA model is applied and then an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (FARIMA) model is achieved to take into account the long-memory dynamics. The insertion of long-memory dynamics improved the forecasting accuracy. Finally, a number of indices with a significant effect on unemployment rate were identified and several FARIMA models with these indices as external regressors were developed. Keywords: economic crisis; Greece; unemployment rate; unemployment hysteresis; unit root tests; Hurst exponent; R/S method; ARIMA; FARIMA model; forecasting models; long memory dynamics. (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:5:y:2015:i:2:p:127-142 Access Statistics for this article More articles in International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics from Inderscience Enterprises Ltd |
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