The economic future of Russia

Pekka Sutela

International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2007, vol. 1, issue 1, 21-33

Abstract: The paper provides a scenario exercise for Russian economic development until 2017. Russia will continue to grow for several years at least, as an emerging middle class drives consumption growth and structural change, though not in exports. Import propensity grows fast, and the recent current account surplus is disappearing fast. Investment also seems to be surging. Two dimensions seem crucial for building scenarios. Will Russia be able to increase energy production and exports? Will there be a meaningful diversification of production and exports, needed for maintaining the current account and to provide jobs for a large if slowly decreasing labour force? Ensuing scenarios have clear political implications.

Keywords: Russia; economic development; energy production; exports; employment; scenario analysis; consumption growth; structural change; emerging economies; economic policy. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijepee:v:1:y:2007:i:1:p:21-33

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