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Cyclical behaviour of the Swiss real estate market

Thomas Ankenbrand, Fabian Kostadinov, Faten Ben Bouheni and Mondher Bellalah

International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business, 2020, vol. 39, issue 1/2, 71-99

Abstract: The influence of the last real estate crisis in Switzerland, in the '90s, was severe. Here, we seek to analyse the Swiss real estate market using agent-based modelling (ABM), from December 1986 to September 2014. Our model combines explicit knowledge of behavioural patterns of the agents, with implicit knowledge in the form of time series analysis. Findings are in line with other markets, indicating that the Swiss real estate market is pro-cyclical. If the trend of historically long-term increasing prices on the Swiss real estate market stops, we would expect a hard landing. Then, if regulation reduces the increasing real estate prices, this would lead to a drop in long-term prices.

Keywords: Swiss real estate market; agent-based modelling; economic cycle. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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