EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The impact of rising international crude oil price on China's economy: an empirical analysis with CGE model

Ying Fan, Jian-Ling Jiao, Qiao-Mei Liang, Zhi-Yong Han and Yi-Ming Wei ()

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2007, vol. 27, issue 4, 404-424

Abstract: Many studies, as well as historical events, indicate that oil price shocks affect the macro economy of a country. In this paper we build a Chinese Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, with which we simulate the impact on the Chinese economy of international crude oil price when it rises by 5%, 10%, 20%, 40%, 50% and 100%. Simulation also identifies the effects of low/medium/high technological advances in the crude oil mining, petroleum and chemical and transportation sectors on fighting the risk of oil price shocks. The results indicate that international crude oil price has negative effects on Chinese real GDP, investment, consumption, import and export, amongst a range of economic indices. Technological advances have positive effects on fighting back the risk of oil price shocks, especially the technological advances in petroleum and chemicals, whilst the transportation sector has a greater effect on resisting oil price risk. An international oil price hike holds more disadvantages for rural residents' welfare. These results would be valuable reference information for policy makers.

Keywords: crude oil prices; CGE models; price risks; technological advances; China; economic impact; Chinese economy; computable general equilibrium model; simulation; oil price rises; risk management; rural areas. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=14864 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:27:y:2007:i:4:p:404-424

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in International Journal of Global Energy Issues from Inderscience Enterprises Ltd
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Carmel O'Grady ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).

 
Page updated 2020-10-19
Handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:27:y:2007:i:4:p:404-424