A modelling framework for the forecasting of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions at local/regional level

Vangelis Marinakis, Panos Xidonas and Haris Doukas

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2016, vol. 39, issue 6, 444-460

Abstract: Building appropriate scenarios for the elaboration of Sustainable Energy Action Plans, within the framework of the Covenant of Mayors, is a complex task. One major question to be addressed is whether the selected combination of examined measures and actions is considered enough for the local authorities to achieve their long-term target of CO₂ emissions reduction. The proposed decision support model aims to address this issue, by enabling the elaboration of long-term scenarios of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions at local/regional level. The Delphi method is appropriately applied for embracing experts' judgements. Moreover, an overall algorithm for the future scenarios ('BAU Scenario', 'Economic Prosperity Scenario' and 'Economic Recession Scenario') is introduced, along with a corresponding computerised software. The system's pilot application to a Greek community is presented and discussed. The proposed approach could support the decision-making process for the elaboration of Sustainable Energy Action Plan within the Covenant of Mayors.

Keywords: decision support systems; DSS; scenario analysis; sustainable energy action plans; sustainable development; Covenant of Mayors; sustainability; modelling; energy forecasting; energy consumption; CO2; carbon dioxide; carbon emissions; local level; regional level; Delphi method; decision making; Greece; air pollution; air quality. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:39:y:2016:i:6:p:444-460

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