Modelling and prediction of COVID-19 to measure the impact of lockdown on organisation in India

Pushpa Singh and Rajeev Agrawal

International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, 2022, vol. 26, issue 2, 259-275

Abstract: This paper attempts to model and to predict the outbreak of COVID-19 through the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic model with a specific focus on India. The impact of lockdown on transmission rate has been exponentially decaying the transmission rate that is very significant in order to control the spread of the disease. The proposed model can approximately predict the newly infected cases and recovered cases of COVID-19. This paper is based on SIR-based mathematical model, designed to predict the newly infected cases and recovered cases of COVID-19. The transmission rate and recovery rate parameters studied are with the impact of a lockdown situation. The simulation result predicts that the epidemic grows on August-October 2020, and after that, it started to shrink with the assumed constrained scenario. This study measures the impact of lockdown on various organisations such as the health sector, e-commerce, IT sector, etc. in India.

Keywords: COVID-19; transmission rate; recovery rate; SIR model; lockdown; organisation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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