An empirical analysis of forecasting methods for trauma injuries in rural areas - a case study

Alakshendra Joshi, Eduardo Pérez and Francis A. Méndez-Mediavilla

International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 2024, vol. 48, issue 2, 276-300

Abstract: Trauma is an essential aspect that must be considered by governing bodies when providing and expanding healthcare services across their jurisdiction. This study focuses on analysing and forecasting physical trauma sustained from accidents, in environments both personal and work related, pertaining to individual injuries but not excluding the scope of large-scale natural disasters. The goal of the study is to better understand the limitations faced by the existing trauma healthcare infrastructure by forecasting the expected number of people requiring the services of trauma facilities in rural areas. Five types of forecasting methods were analysed to determine the best option to utilise for forecasting for individual datasets. Out of these models, ARIMA proved to be the best performing method for a significant majority of the individual datasets.

Keywords: trauma; time series forecasting; patients; facilities; autoregressive integrated moving averages; ARIMA. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijisen:v:48:y:2024:i:2:p:276-300

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