Jordan's future renewable energy stability and break-even analysis under various catalysts using system dynamics

Samer Abaddi

International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 2025, vol. 50, issue 2, 147-163

Abstract: The social acceptability of photovoltaic (PV) systems contributes not only to the amount of power generated but also to the CO₂ emissions reduction in Jordan. The effect of three catalysts; subsidy proportion, word of mouth (WOM) and advertising effectiveness is addressed in this piece of work, in addition to a forecast of the power generated and the CO₂ emissions reduction by 2080. System dynamics (SD) is the fundamental approach of this study. Qualitative interviews and energy reports assisted the data collection process and simulation was conducted between 2020 and 2080. Six scenarios are hypothesised to facilitate the comparison between the catalyst's effects with the help of break-even point analysis. Jordan is expected to generate 1.845 Terra Wh (TWh) and 995.9 TWh of energy by 2040 and 2080, respectively. The CO₂ emissions reduction is expected to cross 630 million tons by 2080. Advertising effectiveness was found to be the top catalyst that stimulates the power generated in Jordan followed by WOM. The quantitative models foster the policy makers towards investing in social acceptability dimensions toward achieving earlier equivalency of demand and supply. This is the first study in Jordan that develops break-even calculations at various levels of catalysts using SD.

Keywords: system dynamics; SD; power generated; word of mouth; WOM; subsidy proportion; advertising effectiveness; Jordan. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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