Dealing with resilience in supply chain: an integrated Markov chain modelling approach

Suchera Putthakosa and Huynh Trung Luong

International Journal of Logistics Systems and Management, 2026, vol. 53, issue 3, 285-330

Abstract: Recently, supply chain disruptions have occurred all over the world. An evident example is the global pandemic, which is COVID-19. Such a pandemic exposes vulnerable points in the supply chain networks and causes prolonged recovery periods. Therefore, developing resilience in the supply chain is essential to deal with disruptions. This study derives a continuous-time Markov chain model to help analyse the sustainability, vulnerability, and recoverability of a supplier who might experience disruptive events. The forward Kolmogorov's equations are employed to help determine the transition probabilities of all system states. Also, the limiting probabilities of the states are determined to quantify the proportion of time that the system will be in the normal, absorbing, and disrupted states in the long run. This approach is a new way of examining sustainability, vulnerability, and recoverability, which are the key components of the supply chain's resilience.

Keywords: supply chain resilience; continuous Markov chain model; supply chain disruption; network behaviour; supply chain management. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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