PERT vs. Monte Carlo Simulation along with the suitable distribution effect

Konstantinos A. Kirytopoulos, Vrassidas N. Leopoulos and Viktor K. Diamantas

International Journal of Project Organisation and Management, 2008, vol. 1, issue 1, 24-46

Abstract: Project schedule development is an iterative process that determines the planned start and finish dates for project activities. Within this process the anticipated project duration is also determined. The primary aim of this paper is to stress the importance of historical information as well as the right distribution selection in activity duration estimating, by comparing the different outcomes of scenarios when historical information is or is not used. The scenarios were implemented on 20 small- and medium-sized construction projects. Both the Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) are used and the results produced under four different scenarios are compared. The first scenario uses standard PERT, while the three remaining scenarios are simulation approaches differentiated in the use of the right distribution or not and in the use of historical information or not. The findings validate that MCS is superior to PERT and moreover expose the difference in the results when the suitable distributions are selected based on accurate historical information compared to when historical information is not available.

Keywords: project risk management; schedule development; programme evaluation and review technique; PERT; Monte Carlo simulation; MCS; activity duration estimating; case study; project scheduling. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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