 A PERT model based on the Dampster and Shafer's theory of evidence – application to product developmentFrancesco Lolli, Antonio Maria Coruzzolo and Matteo Zironi International Journal of Productivity and Quality Management, 2023, vol. 38, issue 2, 143-165 Abstract: The epistemic uncertainty affecting the estimates of lead times in new product development may have significant side effects over the management of the said projects, and nowadays an effective tool to manage this kind of uncertainty is still missing for new product development projects. In this paper we propose a new project evaluation and review technique (PERT) model based on lead times defined by the theory of evidence. The main advantages of our proposal come from the inclusion and measurement of the epistemic uncertainty lying into lead time estimates along the PERT network, which is further analysed by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The work is completed by applying this model to a real instance of new product development process within a company, and the results obtained are analysed by investigating how different combination and transformation rules affect the probability distribution of the activity lead times. Keywords: project evaluation and review technique; PERT; Dempster and Shafer theory; new product development; uncertainty management; project management. (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:ijpqma:v:38:y:2023:i:2:p:143-165 Access Statistics for this article More articles in International Journal of Productivity and Quality Management from Inderscience Enterprises Ltd |
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