Orcutt's hypothesis revisited: evidence from commodity prices

Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Amr Hosny

International Journal of Public Policy, 2015, vol. 11, issue 4/5/6, 152-168

Abstract: In 1950, Orcutt conjectured that trade flows respond to changes in the exchange rate faster than to changes in relative prices. Previous research that tested Orcutt's hypothesis used aggregate trade flows of one country with the rest of the world and did not find much support for the hypothesis. Due to lack of commodity prices, no study has attempted to test Orcutt's conjecture at commodity level. Now that we have come across such price data for 36 industries that trade between the USA and Egypt, we test the Orcutt's hypothesis using industry level data and provide support for the hypothesis in 50% of the cases.

Keywords: Orcutt's hypothesis; Egypt-USA trade; industry data; Egypt; USA; United States; commodity prices; trade flows; exchange rate. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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