The relative efficiency of the crude oil futures market: evidence from India

Sarveshwar Kumar Inani

International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, 2018, vol. 9, issue 2, 225-243

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to identify the extent of relative efficiency of the futures contracts of crude oil, traded in the multi commodity exchange of India limited. This study examines the price discovery process in the short-run and long-run by using daily data from 1 April 2006 to 30 June 2015. Stationarity and cointegration tests reveal that spot and futures prices are I(1) and cointegrated. Granger causality test has been employed to examine the short-run price discovery, which shows a bi-directional causality with a dominance of the futures market. Three different information share techniques-component share method of Gonzalo and Granger (1995), information share method of Hasbrouck (1995) and modified information share of Lien and Shrestha (2009) - have been used to measure the relative efficiency of the spot and futures market in the long-run. These results (short-run and long-run) indicate that the price discovery takes place in the futures market. Relative efficiency and the price discovery have crucial implications for optimal portfolio allocation and forecasting of future spot prices. These findings might be useful for the regulators, government, exchange and policy makers to form market structure policies and guidelines for the commodity markets in emerging economies.

Keywords: price discovery; relative efficiency; vector error correction model; VECM; Johansen cointegration; information share; common factor methods; futures market; India. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=92135 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ids:injbaf:v:9:y:2018:i:2:p:225-243

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance from Inderscience Enterprises Ltd
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sarah Parker ().