A parameter estimation method for machine tool reliability analysis using expert judgement

Bhupesh Kumar Lad and Makarand S. Kulkarni

International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, 2010, vol. 2, issue 2, 155-169

Abstract: This paper aims at providing a parameter estimation method for the machine tool reliability analysis to overcome the problem of unavailability of a well-defined failure data collection mechanism. It uses the knowledge and experience of maintenance personnel to obtain the parameters of lifetime distribution of the repairable as well as non-repairable components/subassemblies. It is further developed for the cases where the knowledge available with the expert is with reference to the preventive repair/replacement policy used in the field. In case of imperfect repairs, the methodology also helps in estimating the value of restoration factor. The goodness of the proposed methodology at a given accuracy level in expert judgements are tested against the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. It is concluded that the expert judgement method provides a satisfactory alternative to statistical methods when no or very few historical time to failure data points are available.

Keywords: reliability analysis; data analysis; parameter estimation; expert judgement; preventive maintenance; restoration factor; machine tool reliability. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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