Crude Oil and Oil Products

Mariana Papatulica

Conjunctura economiei mondiale / World Economic Studies, 2014

Abstract: Despite oil market analysts’ forecasts which, since 2010, staked on a crude oil price decline, due to spectacular increase in non-OPEC oil production, especially US shale oil, the price of Brent crude oil, a benchmark on international markets, has completed each of the last three years (2011,2012,2013) near a high average level of $108-110/barrel. The factors that influenced the evolution of crude oil market were: more favorable economic outlook for US and China economies; Japan growing demand for crude oil and oil products (as substitutes for nuclear energy); the incidence of geopolitical factors, especially the fears generated by the Syrian conflict and the risk of its spreading in the Gulf area, which brought in the view the possibility of major disruptions in oil supply from the region. According to analysts from "City Bank", the revolution of oil shale extraction technology, suggests a very robust supply, even an oversupply, indicating as possible, for 2014, a moderate decline of Brent prices by around $ 10/barrel, compared to the period 2011-2013.

Keywords: crude oil price; oil oversupply; geopolitical factors; economic impact (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D43 E31 Q41 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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