Turkey

Lucia Iordache

Conjunctura economiei mondiale / World Economic Studies, 2016, 103-109

Abstract: The moderate growth recorded in 2014 - 2015 (with rates of 3% and 4%) will be maintained during the period 2016 -2017, having as key factors the low oil price, monetary policy easing and the sharp hike in the minimum wage. Domestic demand remains the "engine" of economic growth. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth will be negative during the forecast period, partly because of the sanctions imposed upon Russia, and of the unstable security situation in Turkey and neighbouring areas. The inflation rate declined in 2015 in the context of Turkish lira's depreciation, but in 2016 will rise again due to domestic inflationary pressures. The slow diminishing trend of the current account deficit in 2014 - 2015, which was favoured by low oil prices, will be reversed in the period 2016 - 2017, exceeding the 5% of GDP. Also, the budget deficit will be greater than in 2015 but will remain within reasonable limits not exceeding 1.7% of GDP. The slow downward trend of the share of public debt to GDP will continue during the forecast period.

Keywords: Trend of moderate growth driven by domestic demand; relative stability of public finances; economic; political and geopolitical risks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iem:conjun:y:2016:p:103-109

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