THE EVOLUTION OF WORLD TRADE IN 2015 AND THE PROSPECTS FOR 2016-2017

Agnes Ghibuţiu

Impact of Socio-economic and Technological Transformations at National, European and International Level (ISETT), 2016, vol. 12

Abstract: This paper analyzes the developments in world trade in goods and services in 2015, as well asthe prospects for 2016-2017. It highlights both the main determinants and salient features ofmerchandise trade in 2015, and its dynamics in terms of volume and value. It also sheds light on thegeographical composition of merchandise trade and the major traders worldwide. Similarly, the paperoutlines the main trends shaping trade in services in 2015. According to the findings of the paper,2015 marked the fourth consecutive year in which trade growth has been disappointing, withtrade expanding less than 3%, and exceeding only marginally global GDP growth, unlike theyears before the crisis, when this ratio was almost 2:1. Given the cyclical and structuralfactors behind the recent slowdown in global trade, growth in the volume of worldmerchandise trade is likely to pick up only slightly over 2016-2017.

Keywords: global trade; merchandise trade; trade in services; World Trade Organization (WTO); forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F13 F17 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:iem:imptrs:v:12:y:2016:id:2822000009619003

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