Comments regarding China's Influence on the International Metal Markets

Iulia Oehler-Şincai

Revista de Economie Mondiala / The Journal of Global Economics, 2014, vol. 6, issue 3

Abstract: According to international experts, a country’s demand for metals follows its GDP per capita trend. Taking into consideration China's position as the main consumer of metals worldwide and the corollary that its demand will keep on increasing at least until its GDP per capital level doubles – which cannot happen before the 2020s – this country's consumption of metals will continue its ascending move. Moreover, the experts foresee that China will surpass the USA by 2030 as regards its GDP in current prices, and its economy will become the largest in the world. Consequently, China's consumption of metals will surpass the actual level in the following years, in spite of its GDP slowing down and the process of its economic rebalancing. Statistical data and recent research papers underline that the Chinese demand for durable goods will increase in the following period thus the demand for metals used in manufacturing will continue to grow. At the same time, the Chinese infrastructure is far from completed, as the development gaps between the eastern China and its central and western regions are considerable and the investments in building or modernizing national roads, highways, electrical grid, utilities, harbours, airports will continue to be significant. Therefore, under the "China factor", the world metal demand will grow further in parallel with the technical progress, rise in the standard of living and the gradual increase of income per capita. At the same time, the dynamics and structure of consumption of different metals will change.

Keywords: "China factor"; metals; base metals; iron ore; rare earth; supply and demand; prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E23 E30 E31 E60 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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