Economic and Geopolitical Considerations regarding International Crude Oil Market Developments in the First Half of 2016. Short Term Outlook

Mariana Papatulica

Revista de Economie Mondiala / The Journal of Global Economics, 2016, vol. 8, issue 2

Abstract: World oil industry waited with hope the end of 2015 - maybe the worst year for oil producers since the crisis of 2008-2009 - though it was unclear whether 2016 will prove to be better. The sharp slide in prices since the first month of the year, to a “bottom†of $ 25 / barrel not seen since 2003 did not seem encouraging for the "oilmen". But since March 2016 prices started a recovery process, at first slowly and then increasingly stronger, so to the end of May, they approached the threshold of $ 50/barrel, and then exceeded it on 8 June for the first time since July 2015. The massive production cuts due to force majeure and geopolitical factors and dollar depreciation have secured the support of this “revival†which gave hope to a more sustainable recovery of crude oil market and prices, but Brexit's effects could considerably temper recent optimism of crude oil price forecasts.

Keywords: crude oil prices; underlying fundamentals; geopolitical factors; monetary policy; economic turmoil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 E42 O23 Q41 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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