Inside Money, Output, and Causality
Scott Freeman and
International Economic Review, 1991, vol. 32, issue 3, 645-67
The authors present an explicit general equilibrium model consistent with these observations: (1) innovations in the nominal money stock are positively correlated with and precede (" Granger-cause") innovations in output; (2) these innovations in the nominal money stock represent innovations in inside, not outside, money; and (3) when interest rates are included in vector autoregressions, their innovations, not money's, are seen to precede output. Changes in the money stock represent an endogenous reaction to some third factor and do not cause subsequent changes in output. Therefore, a change in the current fiat money stock will not lead to any change in output. Copyright 1991 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.
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