The Sources of Financial Crisis: Pre- and Post-Fed Evidence

Fabio Canova

International Economic Review, 1991, vol. 32, issue 3, 689-713

Abstract: This paper investigates the generation and the propagation mechanism of currency demand and supply shocks before and after World War I, the structural determinants of the variability of stock prices and interest rates, and the changes introduced by the creation of the Fed on the dynamics of the system. It is shown that in the pre-1914 era external monetary shocks interacted with a seasonal demand for money to produce financial crises. The Fed helped to prevent crises by insulating the U.S. economy from external shocks. A structural vector autoregressive model provides evidence for these claims. Copyright 1991 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Date: 1991
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