Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models

René Garcia

International Economic Review, 1998, vol. 39, issue 3, 763-88

Abstract: Markov switching (MS) models raise a problem known as testing hypotheses when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. The author shows that the asymptotic distribution theory used for testing in presence of such a problem appears to work also for MS models, even though its validity can be questioned because of identically zero scores under the null estimates. Assuming the validity of this distribution theory, he derives the asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio (LR) test for various MS models. Monte Carlo experiments show that the LR asymptotic distributions approximate the empirical distributions very well. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Date: 1998
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Working Paper: Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models (1995)
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